According to the shipbroker, “seaborne crude oil exports from West Africa have seen steady growth this year, apparently unaffected by the virus pandemic and by the collapse in oil prices. Trade patterns, however, continue to shift, in ways both expected and unexpected. In the first 4 months of 2020, the West Africa region exported at least 75.1 mln tonnes of crude oil by sea, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a net increase of +3.2% y-o-y, compared to the 72.8 mln tonnes exported in the same four-month period of 2019. Of this, 33.2 mln tonnes were loaded in Nigeria, 23.5 mln tonnes in Angola, 4.7 mln tonnes in Congo (Brazzaville), 3.6 in Cameroon, 3.3 in Ghana, 3.2 in Gabon, 2.0 in Equatorial Guinea, 0.9 in Togo”.
Source: Banchero Costa
Banchero Costa added that “on a single-month basis, January 2020 was up +0.6% y-o-y from January 2019 at 18.3 mln tonnes. In February, exports from West Africa increased to 18.5 mln tonnes, +1.2% m-o-m and +10.4% y-o-y, as February last year was unusually slow. In March 2020 loadings increased again to 19.0 mln tonnes, up +2.5% m-o-m but -1.6% y-o-y. April 2020 recorded a further surge to 19.3 mln tonnes, a +1.3% increase m-o-m and +4.4% y-o-y. It will be interesting to see if this trend can be kept also over the summer months, which is peak export season from the region. The majority of cargos this year from West Africa have been Suezmax-sized, with less than 5% of cargoes loaded on VLCCs. Of total exports this year from West Africa, 29.6% or 22.3 mln tonnes were destined for China. Volumes to China this year actually declined by -8.1% y-o-y. A further 18.4 mln tonnes, accounting for 24.5% of the total, were shipped to the European Union (still including the UK for comparison sake)”.
“Shipments to Europe actually increased this year, by +0.8% y-o-y compared to 2019, although they till remain marginally lower than in 2018. 7.6 mln tonnes, or 10.1% of the total, were shipped to India. Shipments to India this year declined by -11.9% y-o-y. The most significant trend in recent years has been the drying up of the American market, and this continues this year as well. Oil shipments from West Africa to the USA crashed by -53.8% y-o-y in the first 4 months of 2020, to just 1.9 mln tonnes. This was down from 4.0 mln tonnes in the same period last year, and from 7.1 mln tonnes in the same period of 2018. The USA now account for just 2.5% of West Africa’s oil exports, down from 10% in 2018. On the other hand, new markets are opening up. Exports from West Africa to South Africa increased sharply by 33.3% y-o-y to 4.7 mln tonnes. South Africa now accounts for a 6.3% market share. Even more significantly, there has been a huge jump in exports to South East Asia. Shipments to Thailand surged by +400% to 2.2 mln tonnes. Volumes to Malaysia jumped by +56% y-o-y to also 2.2 mln tonnes. Those to Indonesia increased by +38% y-o-y to 1.9 mln tonnes. Singapore clocked in a +184% increase y-o-y to 1.7 mln tonnes”, the shipbroker concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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